Shanghai, November 23 (SMM)-Shanghai base metals rose across the board on Tuesday morning. At the same time, LME's peers basically fell.

LME Metals closed up across the board on Monday. Copper rose 0.21%, aluminum rose 0.45%, lead rose 1.26%, and zinc rose 3.97%.

Metals on the Shanghai Futures Exchange performed similarly in overnight trading. Copper rose 1.39%, aluminum rose 0.86%, lead rose 1.25%, zinc rose 4.52%, and nickel rose 2.27%.

Copper: LME three-month copper opened at US$9,343/ton last night. After hitting the lowest and highest points of US$9,579/ton and US$9,750/ton respectively, it rose 0.21% to close at US$9,671.5/ton. The trading volume is 11,000 lots and the open interest is 255,000 lots. It is estimated that the trading price of three-month copper on the LME today will be between 9,630-9,730 US dollars/ton.

The most active 2201 copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange opened at 70,370 yuan/ton, rising 1.39% overnight to close at 71420 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 70,000 lots and the open interest was 169,000 lots. It is estimated that the Shanghai copper futures transaction will be between 71,000-71,600 yuan/ton today, and the spot premium will be between 650-1,500 yuan/ton.

After U.S. President Biden nominated Powell as the chairman of the Federal Reserve, U.S. Treasury yields rose in tandem with the U.S. dollar, and the U.S. dollar index hit a 16-month high of 96.551. LME copper prices narrowed driven by the rise in the US dollar, while low inventories continued to support prices. The spot price premium dropped from RMB 2,000/ton to less than RMB 1,000/ton, mainly because part of the imported copper entered the market and part of the Guangdong spot was shipped to Shanghai. The shortage of places and invoices may be alleviated. The premium structure of the Shanghai Futures Exchange 2112 and 2201 was expanded to 500 yuan/ton, which restrained downstream purchases to a certain extent and dragged down the premium. Spot premiums may stabilize further after the stock shortage is lifted, but the decline may be limited.

Aluminum: LME three-month aluminum rose 0.45% overnight to close at US$2,695/ton.

The most active 2201 aluminum contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.86% last night to close at 19,260 yuan/ton.

Domestic supply has tightened again, while demand remains sluggish. Sluggish demand in North China may depress aluminum prices. The aluminum material fluctuated in the last period. Changes in social inventory and downstream consumption are still the focus of market attention.

Lead: The three-month LME lead price opened at US$2,225/ton, hit the lowest price of US$2,219/ton last night, and then closed up by 1.26% to US$2,248.5/ton. Despite the rise in the U.S. dollar, the LME lead continued to rise and rebounded above the low of the Bollinger Band.

The most active Shanghai Futures Exchange 2112 lead contract opened at 14,920 yuan/ton last night, hit a maximum of 15,015 yuan/ton, and closed at 14,930 yuan/ton, up 1.25%. After the lead price fell across the board the previous week, downstream users purchased one after another, and social inventories continued to decline. Spot holders kept prices firm amid bullish sentiment and news that Anhui's large secondary lead smelter will cut production. As a result, lead prices rose further in overnight trading.

Zinc: The LME three-month zinc futures rose slightly by 3.97% last night and closed at US$3,356/ton. The open interest remained unchanged at 269,000 lots. Zinc inventories in LME-listed warehouses decreased by 2,375 metric tons, or 1.34%, to 175,025 metric tons. Due to rising electricity costs, European smelters have suffered losses. LME zinc is expected to fluctuate between US$3,310-3,370/ton.

The 2201 zinc contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange with the largest trading volume rose 1,035 yuan/ton, or 4.52%, to 23,950 yuan/ton, and open interest increased by 13064 lots to 162,900 lots. On the supply side, overseas energy problems have intensified. Glencore said that as high energy prices continue to affect Italy's industrial base, the zinc sulfide production line at its Portovesme smelter will undergo an overhaul before the end of next month. The annual production capacity of this production line is 100,000 tons. The operating rate of die-casting alloy plants dropped slightly, and some plants digested finished products. Affected by the drop in zinc prices, end-user demand fell short of expectations, and some manufacturers tended to reduce orders from debt customers near the end of the year. The increase in spot premiums is due to the approaching deadline for long-term orders and the relatively tight market resources for this month's tickets. European electricity prices have risen again and smelters are losing money, boosting overseas zinc prices. Zinc prices are expected to be firm. It is expected that the zinc contract with the largest trading volume today will fluctuate between 23,400-24,000 yuan/ton. #0 Domestic double-salt zinc may be 50-70 yuan/ton higher than the 2112 zinc contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange.

Nickel: The 2112 nickel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed at 15,1980 yuan/ton, an increase of 4,000 yuan/ton or 2.72% from the settlement price of the previous trading day. The volume was 102,000 lots. Open interest decreased by 801 lots to 88,000 lots. Due to the closing of the import window, the domestic supply of pure nickel has been tight recently, and the inventory may fall further. On the demand side, the current demand for new energy still has a certain growth rate, but the growth rate has slowed down significantly. Stainless steel production has basically recovered, and nickel demand has also stabilized. There is no bright spot of nickel on the supply and demand side. However, due to low domestic inventories, the recent-month nickel contract prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are on a rising trend. Yesterday, the US House of Representatives voted to pass the Biden administration's $1.75 trillion bill, including a new electric vehicle tax credit bill proposed by the Speaker of the Democratic House of Representatives. The subsidy proposed by the bill is conducive to the consumption of new energy vehicles. This also stimulated the rise of nickel prices to a certain extent. Market sentiment will keep nickel prices strong today. However, after returning to the fundamentals, we still need to be wary of the callback of nickel prices.

Tin: The 2112 tin contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose and funds left the market. The ore import data increased, and the net export of tin ingots turned into a net import. The supply side is expected to continue to relax. At the later stage, pay attention to whether the actual performance of demand and inventory will accumulate. The 2112 tin contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange hit a recent high. The 2112 contract funds continued to leave the market steadily, and the speed of lightening positions has accelerated compared with yesterday. The settlement of 2201 contract funds is also steadily advancing. As a result, supply and demand remain weak, the spot market has stabilized, and futures funds have decreased. With the delivery of the 2112 contract approaching, the price is expected to be at a high level.

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